What a world...

Just got back from a trip overseas. I was in Moscow, Rome and unexpectedly, in Copenhagen. It was a very interesting trip. Moscow is definitely a city of two distinct areas. There's the extremely luxurious areas that probably cater the the 100 or so billionaires in Russia; then there's the drab, gray, run-down areas that cater to everyone else. The place is pretty bleak. Unless you're hanging out where the rich Russians are, its very depressing. Go communism! On the upside, a trick I had heard about from a former CIA guy worked quite well: before drinking with Russians, eat a cube of butter to coat the stomach. I did and I think it helped me survive. The Russians are feisty drinkers...
Rome was wonderful. The Italians are thoroughly enjoying a weaker dollar and are buying up as much stuff as they can with the money they get from selling Italian wares around the world. Good visit, definitely a city I enjoy seeing.
Copenhagen was by far the most fun, but also probably because it involved very little business. I walked around the local pubs each night and had a generally good time. Now I'm back in the good ole' USA.
It's been a very good couple of weeks for airline stocks. AMR is up 116% since July 16! 116% in just 8 days! Someone's making a very good amount of money. It appears as though airline stocks are moving solely based on what happens in crude oil, but by a factor of 10. If this continues and oil were to drop to $80, AMR would go from $9/share to about $1200/share. Obviously, this won't continue, but it has been fun to watch.
Speaking of oil... Was able to see the most thorough analysis of the oil market to date and it seems as though in the short run, with supply and demand almost vertical, the price of oil could fluctuate between 75 and 300. These fluctuations could happen because of any number of reasons, from 10 hurricanes forming at once in the Atlantic to Saudi Arabia deciding to no longer produce oil. In the long term, however, it seems that the fair value of oil should be between $50 and $80. Wouldn't that be nice?...
I'm off to the coast of North Carolina for vacation tomorrow. Next week, I'll talk about 401(k), Roth 401(k) and Roth IRA. Until then!

A good time to be alive...

A couple of interesting charts, not for the pessimistic of heart...

http://bp1.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/SG9tYI_UXmI/AAAAAAAAFEM/
18zc58Q82sw/s1600-h/tax.gif

http://bp3.blogger.com/_otfwl2zc6Qc/SHDPmNqd0bI/AAAAAAAAFE8/
bcJXrWqopQI/s1600-h/fed1.jpg

You might have to copy and paste the entire URL into your web browser.

Thanks to CD for the pointer.

The Fed is alive!

Yesterday the Fed held interest rates steady and indicated that inflation has begun to rise to worrisome levels (what, really?), a sign that the Fed may begin raising interest rates in the near future. I think this is a good move for the economy over the long term, but may not be good for the stock market over the next year or so. If interest rates are hiked while the economy is not growing steadily, this could swamp the market as the price of acquiring and deploying capital rises. However, this is good for your retirement accounts over the long term, as there are few things more dangerous to a retirement account than high inflation, which eats away at the value of your assets like a termite.

Also, note that I have added a very crude "crude oil monitor" to the blog. If this is too depressing to see, let me know and I'll consider removing it.

Until then!

Paying down that mortgage...

Recently, a question was asked: "With rates for loans so low, would it be good to take out a loan to pay down my mortage?"

Rates are incredibly low right now. The Federal Reserve has chosen to walk the fine line of keeping interest rates low in order to spur economic growth, while allowing inflation to creep up. Most economists will argue that the job of a Federal Reserve is to keep inflation in check and only use stimulative interest rates to boost the economy if inflation is simultaneously contained. One need only look at the late 70's to see what happens when inflation runs rampant.

Given all of this, rates may be the lowest they'll be for a few years. Eventually the Fed will begin to raise rates, either because the economy will begin to steadily grow again or because inflation will begin to rise at an uncomfortable rate. Either way, this may be a good time to refinance, if and only if the cost to refinance doesn't outweigh the savings you'll gain from refinancing. Always remember to do long term calculations. Finance isn't a short term game.

Lastly, I might suggest other ways to quickly pay off a mortgage. First, pay twice a month instead of once a month. If you pay your monthly mortgage payment at about two week intervals you can shed up to eight years off of your mortgage. Also, if you make one extra payment a year against the principal, you can take years off of your mortgage as well. See: http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/mtg/20010920a.asp

Keep in mind that this is a two-edged sword. Pouring more money into your mortgage denies you the ability to invest that money elsewhere, although paying off your mortgage early will ultimately allow you excess free cash flow in later years. This money of course will not have the time to grow and compound as money invested in earlier years. The only way to know for sure what you should do is to sit down and do a personal financial plan and calculate what is best for your individual situation.

I'll address some other topics brought up in later posts, such as: interest rates, inflation and Federal Reserve Policy. Until then!

It begins!

"Proventus opulentia" is Latin for increasing wealth and is the name I've chosen for this blog. I hope that by helping each other we can ultimately help ourselves.

I've wanted to do something like this for some time now and I'm looking forward to it. This should be fun!